NVC/Pinkston Survey Finds 80% of NOVA business leaders remain concerned about DOGE’s impact on the Greater Washington, DC economy
FALLS CHURCH, VA — Northern Virginia executives’ confidence about the regional economy has improved over the last three months, but uncertainty about DOGE and Tariffs may be stunting growth, according to the Third Quarter Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce (NVC) and Pinkston Business Leader Survey. Approximately 40% of business leaders now believe the economy will grow over the next six months, and 26% expect it to remain stable. This reflects a notable shift in sentiment, with only 34% anticipating a decline, down from 59% in April’s survey.
“Our Q3 survey makes one thing clear: the federal government’s impact on our regional economy is real and significant,” said Julie Coons, NVC President and CEO. “That’s why NVC is forging a path forward with our NOVA Roadmap initiative — working closely with regional partners to ensure the health and longevity of our economy. Despite concerns at the federal level, business leaders are feeling more optimistic about their companies’ ability to navigate uncertainties, highlighting the resilience of our region.”
The NVC/Pinkston Business Leader Survey represents the perspectives, sentiments, and strategic planning of 135 CEOs, corporate executives, and business owners with operations in Northern Virginia. The previous (Q2) survey findings are available HERE, while the Q3 survey results are found HERE.
Key Q3 findings include:
- NOVA Economic Sentiment
- 40% of business leaders believe the NOVA economy will grow over the next six months; 26% believe it will stay the same, and 34% believe it will decline.
- The Q2 survey (April 2025) found that only 21% of business leaders believed the local economy would grow over the next six months, 19% believed it would stay the same, and 59% believed it would decline.
- Business Sentiment
- 68% of business leaders are very or somewhat optimistic about their company’s performance over the next six months.
- The Q2 survey (April 2025) found that only 54% of business leaders were very or somewhat optimistic about their company’s performance in the next six months.
- Impact of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)
- 80% of business leaders are concerned about DOGE’s impact on the Greater Washington, DC economy (47% are very concerned, 17% are somewhat concerned, and 16% are a little concerned).
- 56% of business leaders say DOGE has had no impact on their company’s business decisions in the last six months. However, 23% of business leaders have downsized operations, 16% have pursued new services or products, 7% have laid off staff, and 6% have shifted towards business with state governments because of DOGE.
- Impact of Tariff Policy
- 40% of business leaders believe the President’s tariff policy and negotiation process will cause their company to decline, 48% expect no impact, and 11% anticipate that their company will grow.
- Hiring Projections
- 30% of business leaders anticipate needing to increase hiring, while 60% anticipate keeping the same staffing levels or are unsure, and 10% anticipate needing to lay off staff.
- The Q2 survey (April) found that only 13% of business leaders planned to increase hiring, while 56% anticipated keeping the same staffing levels, and 18% needed to lay off staff.
- External Issues Impacting Business
- Federal layoffs (47%), inflation (47%), tariff policies (41%), workforce (36%), access to capital (21%), taxes (20%), regulations (20%), federal procurement (20%), federal agency relocation (19%) are the top external issues that are most impacting business growth.
“As Elon Musk has departed the Trump administration and DOGE actions appear to be subsiding, Northern Virginia business leaders’ optimism has slightly improved; however, major concerns remain,” said D.J. Jordan, Senior Vice President at Pinkston. “This region’s business leaders are incredibly smart and resilient, and they can adapt and make effective changes to their business if they have more certainty. Tariff policy and DOGE have created uncertainty about the future playing field, and it appears that some companies are waiting on the sidelines before growing operations and increasing capital.”
Coons continued, “NVC remains committed to advocating for our members at the state and local levels, focusing on key priorities including workforce development, taxes, regulation, and affordability. These issues are critical to supporting a strong and sustainable regional economy.”
Between July 7-14, 2025, 135 CEOs, corporate executives, and business owners who do business in Northern Virginia completed this survey. Most of the respondents lead companies in the government contracting, aerospace and defense, financial services, technology, professional services, retail, and real estate industries.
In part because of the actions of DOGE, CNBC recently dropped Virginia as the top state for business in its annual rankings of America’s Top States for Business in 2025. Northern Virginia continues to be a significant part of the region’s overall business and economic health. Northern Virginia’s share of Greater Washington’s regional economy is 46 percent and boasts the presence of numerous Fortune 500 companies. Northern Virginia’s $302 billion GDP represents nearly 42 percent of the GDP of the Commonwealth of Virginia and is larger than 24 other states.
