Q2 survey cites federal cuts, inflation, and tariff policy as biggest concerns
FALLS CHURCH, VA — Executives’ expectations for Northern Virginia’s economic performance have declined sharply in the first four months of 2025, according to the second Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce (NVC) and Pinkston Business Leader Survey. Nearly 6 in 10 corporate executives now believe the Northern Virginia economy will decline over the next six months, compared to January 2025 when the same number predicted economic growth.
“The findings of this pulse survey reinforce what we’ve been hearing from our membership over the past few months: a significant and growing concern among business leaders regarding the trajectory of our regional economy, largely driven by the impact of federal actions,” said Julie Coons, NVC President and CEO. “We recognize the seriousness of these headwinds and are actively developing a comprehensive report and policy strategy – the NOVA Roadmap – to address these challenges and ensure a resilient, thriving economic future for Northern Virginia. We are committed to working collaboratively with NVC members, policymakers, our coalition of chambers of commerce, and other stakeholders to navigate these uncertainties and foster an environment where our businesses can continue to innovate and succeed.”
The NVC/Pinkston Business Leader Survey represents the perspectives, sentiments, and strategic planning of nearly 300 CEOs, corporate executives, and business owners with operations in Northern Virginia. A coalition of nine business organizations participated in this survey, including:
- Alexandria Chamber of Commerce
- Arlington Chamber of Commerce
- Central Fairfax Chamber of Commerce
- Dulles Chamber of Commerce
- Falls Church Chamber of Commerce
- Greater Reston Chamber of Commerce
- Loudoun County Chamber of Commerce
- Prince William County Chamber of Commerce
- Virginia Black Chamber of Commerce
The full Q1 (January) survey findings are available HERE, while the Q2 survey results are found HERE. Key findings include:
- NOVA Economic Sentiment
- 59% of business leaders believe the NOVA economy will decline over the next six months; 19% believe it will stay the same, and 21% believe it will grow.
- The Q1 survey (January 2025) found that 60% of business leaders believed the NOVA economy would grow over the next six months.
- Business Sentiment
- 54% of business leaders are very or somewhat optimistic about their company’s performance over the next six months.
- The Q1 survey (January 2025) found that 81% of business leaders were very or somewhat optimistic about their company’s performance in the next six months.
- Hiring Projections
- 13% of business leaders anticipate needing to increase hiring, while 56% anticipate keeping the same staffing levels, and 18% anticipate needing to reduce employee headcount.
- Medium and large sized companies are more likely to face layoffs: 31% of companies with 100+ employees anticipate reducing headcount in the next six months.
- The Q1 survey (January) found that 49% of business leaders anticipated needing to increase hiring, while only 6% anticipated needing to reduce employee headcount.
- Capital Spending
- 43% of business leaders expect their company’s capital spending to decrease in the next six months, while 35% anticipate no change. 22% of business leaders anticipate increasing capital spending.
- In the Q1 survey (January) 53% of business leaders planned to significantly or slightly increase capital spending in the next six months. Only 12% of business leaders planned to decrease capital spending.
- Issues Impacting Business
- Federal layoffs (63%), inflation (62%), tariff policies (53%), workforce (31%), supply chain chain issues (30%), and federal procurement (27%) are the top external issues that are most impacting business growth.
“DOGE is shaking up the Northern Virginia economy more than business leaders originally expected,” said D.J. Jordan, Senior Vice President at Pinkston. “About 60% of business leaders believe the Northern Virginia economy will decline over the next six months, 78% expect their company’s capital spending to decline or remain stagnant, and 31% of large companies are anticipating layoffs. This is a big change from our last survey in January.
“It’s no surprise that business leaders are pessimistic, considering our region’s reliance on the federal government, however, there are signs within this survey that demonstrate Northern Virginia’s growth in other industries, such as technology and finance. While business leaders are pessimistic about the Northern Virginia outlook overall, there is a silver lining in that they are more optimistic about their own companies; 54% of business leaders are very or somewhat optimistic about their business performance in the next six months.”
Between April 21-25, 2025, 298 CEOs, corporate executives, and business owners who do business in Northern Virginia completed this survey. Most of the respondents lead companies in the government contracting, aerospace and defense, financial services, technology, professional services, retail, and real estate industries.
In part because of Northern Virginia’s success, CNBC listed Virginia as the top state for business in its annual rankings of America’s Top States for Business in 2024. Northern Virginia’s share of Greater Washington’s regional economy is 46 percent and boasts the presence of numerous Fortune 500 companies. Northern Virginia’s $302 billion GDP represents nearly 42 percent of the GDP of the Commonwealth of Virginia and is larger than 24 other states.
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About NVC
For the past 100 years, NVC—the largest and most influential chamber in the Greater Washington Region—has driven change and innovation, fueling regional economic growth that today powers 46% of the region’s economy, contributes 6% of the nation’s GDP, ranks as the 13th largest U.S. economy, and is home to 40 of Greater Washington’s 64 Fortune 500 companies. On behalf of their more than 500,000 employee members and leaders, NVC works to advance the region as a leader in innovation and growth.
About Pinkston
Pinkston is a full-service branding, marketing, and communications firm that offers a collection of strategic capabilities, including public relations, digital marketing, website development, brand identity, public affairs, research, social media, and video production. Founded in 2001 and based in Falls Church, Virginia, Pinkston serves a wide range of clients including Fortune 500 companies, innovative technology startups, non-profit organizations, and government agencies.