Business Leaders Want The Next Virginia Governor to Prioritize Transportation and Infrastructure, Affordable Housing, Lower Taxes, and Right-To-Work
FALLS CHURCH, VA — Confidence among Northern Virginia executives in the regional economy has declined over the past three months. The downturn is driven by concerns over the government shutdown, federal layoffs, and inflation, according to the Fourth Quarter Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce (NVC) and Pinkston Business Leader Survey. When asked about how the government shutdown is impacting their companies, 44% of business leaders say it is causing their business to decline.
“Our 2025 Business Leader Surveys have demonstrated that federal policy decisions, such as the government shutdown, tariff policies, and restructuring of the federal government, have a tremendous impact on the Northern Virginia business community,” Julie Coons, CEO of the Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce. “And as goes Northern Virginia, so goes the region. While the increase in pessimism from Q1 to Q4 is a cause for concern, NVC is actively executing a proactive strategy to change course. Our NOVA Roadmap initiative seeks to find solutions to diversify our economy, develop sustained investment pathways, and foster a more resilient and optimistic economic outlook.”
The NVC/Pinkston Business Leader Survey represents the perspectives, sentiments, and strategic planning of CEOs, corporate executives, and business owners with operations in Northern Virginia. The previous (Q3) survey findings from July are available HERE, while the Q4 survey results are found HERE.
Key Q4 findings include:
- Government Shutdown Impact
- 44% of business leaders say the government shutdown is causing their company to decline.
- Another 44% say it’s not impacting their business and 13% say it’s actually contributing to business growth.
- External Issues Impacting Business
- The government shutdown (65%) is the top external issue impacting businesses in Northern Virginia.
- The other issues are federal agency layoffs (52%), inflation (52%), tariffs (41%), general workforce (28%) and federal procurement policies (28%).
- Policy Issues for Next Governor
- Ahead of next month’s election in Virginia, transportation and infrastructure (28%) and affordable housing (28%) top the list of policy priorities for the next Governor. The next priority items are lower taxes (25%), keeping right-to-work (24%), reducing regulation (16%), and energy reliability and affordability (13%).
- NOVA & National Economic Sentiment
- 49% of business leaders believe the NOVA economy will decline over the next six months, while 26% believe it will stay the same, and 26% believe it will grow. This is a shift in a negative direction. In the last survey (July), only 34% believed the NOVA economy would decline, while 40% believed the local economy would grow.
- 44% of business leaders are very or somewhat pessimistic about the national economy, while 23% are neutral, and 34% are very or somewhat optimistic. This is also a shift in a negative direction. In the last survey (July), only 35% were very or somewhat pessimistic about the national economy, while 39% were very or somewhat optimistic.
- Individual Business Sentiment
- 66% of business leaders are very or somewhat optimistic about their own company performance in the near future, compared to 17% who are neutral, and 17% who are pessimistic.
- This data point tracks with the last survey (July), which showed that 68% of business leaders were very or somewhat optimistic about their company.
- Impact of Federal Tariff Policy
- 37% of business leaders believe the tariff policy and negotiation process is negatively impacting their company. 50% say it’s presenting no impact, and 13% say it’s helping their company grow.
“We continue to see business leaders who are more optimistic about their own companies than they are about the regional and national economy,” said D.J. Jordan, Senior Vice President at Pinkston. “In July, Northern Virginia business leaders were hopeful that the end of DOGE and a favorable tax and regulatory environment would benefit their bottom lines. However, the government shutdown, ongoing tariff negotiations, and stubborn inflation are causing businesses to become more pessimistic and pause investments.”
Between October 13-20, 2025, 120 CEOs, corporate executives, and business owners who do business in Northern Virginia completed this survey. Most of the respondents lead companies in the government contracting, aerospace and defense, financial services, technology, professional services, retail, and real estate industries.
The Northern Virginia economy is critical to the state and the Washington, D.C. region. Northern Virginia’s share of Greater Washington’s regional economy is 46 percent and boasts the presence of numerous Fortune 500 companies, while Northern Virginia’s $302 billion GDP represents nearly 42 percent of the GDP of the Commonwealth of Virginia and is larger than 24 other states.
