Business Leaders Express Concerns About Virginia’s Recent Legislative Session in Richmond and President’s Tariffs, Yet Remain Somewhat Favorable About Their Own Company Outlook
FALLS CHURCH, VA — Northern Virginia executives are pessimistic about the national economy and 1/3rd expect the regional economy to decline, according to the 2026 First Quarter Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce (NVC) and Pinkston Business Leader Survey. When asked how they believed the Northern Virginia economy would change over the next six months, 32% of business leaders believe it will decline, 34% believe that it will remain the same, and 34% believe that it will grow.
“It’s no surprise that business sentiment is declining as our economy continues to be rattled by shifting federal and state policy signals. This quarter’s survey results serve as a wake-up call,” said Julie Coons, CEO of the Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce. “When 66% of executives expect our economy to remain stagnant or even decline, and half of our leaders feel Richmond doesn’t understand how their businesses actually operate, we have a serious disconnect. Even when harmful proposals like the failed tax on services, wealth tax, and right-to-work repeal are defeated, the mere threat creates lingering uncertainty. To remain competitive by design, Governor Spanberger and General Assembly leadership must bridge this gap and prioritize a collaborative environment where employers feel heard. Otherwise, business leaders may simply choose to invest elsewhere.”
NVC/Pinkston Northern Virginia
Business Leader Survey
This NVC/Pinkston Northern Virginia Business Leader Survey represents the perspectives, sentiments, and strategic planning of 210 CEOs, corporate executives, and business owners. The previous (Q4) survey findings from 2025 are available HERE, while this 2026 Q1 survey report is found HERE.
Key Q1 findings include:
- National Economic Sentiment
- 56% of business leaders are very or somewhat pessimistic about the national economy over the next 6 months, up from 44% in the last Business Leader Survey in October 2025. 25% are very or somewhat optimistic, and 20% are neither optimistic nor pessimistic.
- 56% of business leaders are very or somewhat pessimistic about the national economy over the next 6 months, up from 44% in the last Business Leader Survey in October 2025. 25% are very or somewhat optimistic, and 20% are neither optimistic nor pessimistic.
- NOVA Economic Sentiment
- 32% of business leaders believe the NOVA economy will decline over the next 6 months, while 34% believe that it will remain the same, and 34% believe that it will grow.
- 32% of business leaders believe the NOVA economy will decline over the next 6 months, while 34% believe that it will remain the same, and 34% believe that it will grow.
- Individual Company Outlook
- 67% of business leaders are optimistic about their company’s outlook and performance over the next six months, while 21% are neither optimistic nor pessimistic, and 12% are pessimistic.
- 67% of business leaders are optimistic about their company’s outlook and performance over the next six months, while 21% are neither optimistic nor pessimistic, and 12% are pessimistic.
- Concerns With General Assembly Session in Richmond
- When asked which General Assembly legislation caused the most concern for its potential negative impact on their company’s ability to grow, business leaders listed: expansion of sales taxes to services (49%), repeal of right-to-work (27%), new tax bracket for high-earning individuals (the “millionaire’s tax”) (18%), increase to the minimum wage (17%), and paid family and medical leave (13%).
- When asked which General Assembly legislation caused the most concern for its potential negative impact on their company’s ability to grow, business leaders listed: expansion of sales taxes to services (49%), repeal of right-to-work (27%), new tax bracket for high-earning individuals (the “millionaire’s tax”) (18%), increase to the minimum wage (17%), and paid family and medical leave (13%).
- Do Virginia State Policymakers Understand Business?
- When asked how much they thought state legislators and policymakers in Richmond understand business operations, 50% of business leaders said they do not, while 41% are unsure, and 10% said they do understand business operations.
- When asked how much they thought state legislators and policymakers in Richmond understand business operations, 50% of business leaders said they do not, while 41% are unsure, and 10% said they do understand business operations.
- President Trump’s Tariff Policies Still A Concern
- The President’s tariff policy and negotiation process has had no impact on 58% of NOVA companies, while 34% have declined slowly or significantly because of it, and only 7% have grown.
“As Northern Virginia business leaders have weathered the uncertainty of 2025 federal government cuts and policies, they now face the uncertainty of 2026 Virginia state government policies,” said D.J. Jordan, Senior Vice President at Pinkston. “Our surveys last year showed that DOGE, the government shutdown, AI disruption, and the President’s tariff negotiations were difficult to navigate. While company plans for layoffs are thankfully low and executives are looking for ways to invest capital this year, business leaders are weary of the economic volatility and instability of the national economy and now state policies from Richmond.”
The Northern Virginia economy is critical to the state and the Washington, D.C. region. Northern Virginia’s share of Greater Washington’s regional economy is 46 percent and boasts the presence of numerous Fortune 500 companies, while Northern Virginia’s $321 billion GDP represents nearly 42 percent of the GDP of the Commonwealth of Virginia and is larger than 24 other states.
Between March 23-30, 2026, 210 CEOs, corporate executives, and business owners who do business in Northern Virginia completed this survey. Most of the respondents lead companies in the government contracting, aerospace and defense, financial services, technology, professional services, retail, and real estate industries. About 35% of the companies are located in Fairfax County or City of Fairfax, 15% in Loudoun County, 15% in Prince William County or City of Manassas, 14% in Alexandria, 7% in Falls Church, 7% in Arlington County, and 6% in other locations.
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About NVC
For 100 years, the Northern Virginia Chamber (NVC) — the largest and most influential chamber in Greater Washington — has driven innovation and economic growth. NVC has championed key developments such as the Metro, Dulles Airport, and George Mason University. Representing over 400 members, NVC continues to lead on affordability, workforce, and regional development.
About Pinkston
Pinkston is a full-service branding, marketing, and communications firm that offers a collection of strategic capabilities, including public relations, digital marketing, web development, research, social media, and video production. Founded in 2001 and based in Falls Church, Virginia, Pinkston serves a wide range of clients, including Fortune 500 companies, innovative technology startups, non-profit organizations, and government agencies.
